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Description:
The performance of a military system is about more than the sum of its equipment, manpower, and training. Culture and practices are critical.
The Russian army appears to suffer from serious cultural issues, some of which will not be alien to those who grew up in certain countries. Corruption is a key one, which we've talked about before. But while corruption weakens the force, "vranyo" or the practice of making up obvious lies to cover up the real state of affairs (which everyone then goes along with) and telling the boss what they want to hear at all costs - those practices enable corruption to thrive, and seriously undermine battlefield decision making.
In this episode, we look at the culture of deception and lies in the Russian army, explore some of the common complaints, and discuss some ways it may (I am not a Kremlinologist) potentially impact or have impacted Russian decision making in Ukraine.
Patreon:
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Caveats:
As noted below in sourcing, the existence of "Vranyo" is a cultural phenomenon that is hard to measure. While we can find evidence of it at a macro level, attestations for its prevalence are based on interviews, annecdotes, and complaints from former conscripts, serving personnel, and ordinary Russians.
As such this video should be taken as describing a phenomenon and some of the damage it can cause - but I do not make any assertion over exactly how widespread it is.
I also stress that this sort of lying appears in many organisations where people are encouraged 'not to rock the boat' and 'tell the boss what they want to hear' but the key is most organisations are not an army at war...
I am also not a Kremlin whisperer - so my discussion of how Vranyo at that level is obviously purely hypothetical.
Sources and extra reading:
The Russian Way of War - Force Structure, Tactics, and Modernisation of the Russian Ground Forces (Foreign Military Studies Office, Fort Leavenworth)
https://www.armyupress.army.mil/portals/7/hot%20spots/documents/russia/2017-07-the-russian-way-of-war-grau-bartles.pdf
Opposing force tactics, TC 7-100.2
https://armypubs.army.mil/epubs/DR_pubs/DR_a/pdf/web/tc7_100x2.pdf
Composite credits to the work of translators of Russian commentary like Dmitri of Wartranslated
https://twitter.com/wartranslated?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
TASS on Fake News Laws
https://tass.com/politics/1416591
Translation of alleged letter by the 155th regarding the incompetence and deception of Rustam Muradov
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1589298282085646337
Russian Denial of the above
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-issues-rare-denial-pointless-losses-by-brigade-ukraine-2022-11-07/
Discussion of the alleged purge of the FSB 5th Service:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6SA5d2JgazM
Kadyrov threatens to brief Putin
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/sep/11/putin-loyalist-kadyrov-criticises-russian-armys-performance-over-ukraine-retreat
I do not, on principle, link to individual telegram channels belonging to many of the Pro-Russian figured referenced or relied on. But the complaints described in this video are a composite of many of the allegations they (as well as official figures like those shown in this presentation) level against officers and commanders for habitually lying about the state of the war in Ukraine.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Opening Words
00:01:31 — What Am I Talking About?
00:02:12 — SPONSOR: MORNING BREW
00:03:21 — "Vranyo" - A Culture of Lies
00:03:33 — What's in a Word
00:05:02 — Rejecting Reality & Substituting Your Own
00:06:33 — History & Collective Participation
00:08:46 — Stocks vs Soldiers
00:09:07 — Motivation
00:10:16 — Involuntary Participation
00:12:55 — Compounding Falsehood
00:14:42 — Militaries as Networked Systems
00:15:03 — War is not an RTS
00:16:37 — Information Flow Enables Decision Making
00:17:46 — Why is the Russian Army so Vulnerable
00:18:02 — The RUssian Way of War
00:18:38 — War as an Equation
00:20:38 — Forces and Means
00:23:33 — Echelonment (aka Leming Attacks)
00:26:06 — Rigidity and Commander Centric Decision Making
00:28:46 – Objective: Fortressgrad
00:30:25 — The Assault on Fortressgrad
00:31:46 — Start at the Bottom
00:33:35 — The Officers Get Involved
00:35:14 — A Fine Airforce Showing
00:36:08 — Garbage In...
00:38:17 — ...Garbage Out
00:40:52 — Smile For the Cameras
00:41:31 — A Doomed Venture
00:42:23 — Pervasive Complaints
00:45:23 — Vranyo All the Way to the Top
00:46:46 — Understanding Ukraine
00:50:07 — Understanding The Russian Army
00:52:12 — Understanding the Russian Economy & the West
00:53:55 — Understanding Progress
00:54:55 — Tragic Results
00:58:02 — Can You Fix It?
00:58:34 — Failure-Safe Systems
01:00:07 — Trust But Verify
01:01:04 — Entrenched Culture
01:02:16 — Conclusions
01:03:51 — Channel Update
Дата на публикация: 13 ноември, 2022
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